Goldman Sachs $GS has revised its forecast for a potential U.S. recession, lowering the 12-month probability to 30% from the previous 35%. The adjustment comes in light of reduced trade uncertainty following a renewed commitment between the United States and China to uphold a restructured trade framework. The reassessment reflects growing optimism among analysts that geopolitical friction—specifically around tariffs and export controls—may ease in the near term.

U.S.–China trade relations remain in a state of strategic limbo as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed on Wednesday that tariff levels on Chinese imports will remain unchanged, despite the absence of a finalized trade agreement. This statement, made amid mounting global concerns about economic fragmentation, signals Washington’s continued pressure on Beijing without introducing new trade disruptions.

Citigroup Inc $C revealed plans to reduce approximately 3,500 jobs in its two Chinese technology hubs, located in Shanghai and Dalian. This move is part of a broader effort by the global banking giant to streamline and simplify its technological operations. The downsizing aims to enhance risk management and data governance within Citigroup's expansive global network. The workforce cut is expected to be completed by early Q4 2025, reflecting a significant shift in the company’s operational strategy amid evolving market and regulatory challenges in China and worldwide.