Oil prices edged higher on Monday amid a cautiously optimistic outlook for global trade, after both U.S. and Chinese officials reported meaningful progress in weekend negotiations. The tone of cooperation between the world’s two largest oil consumers helped bolster market sentiment, calming fears of a prolonged demand slump fueled by geopolitical and tariff-related uncertainties.
On Monday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) updated its forecasts, sending a clear signal to economic analysts around the globe. According to the latest monthly report, the global oil demand is expected to increase by 1.30 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2025. However, this figure is 150,000 b/d lower than the previous forecast made last month. The revision comes in the wake of new data from the first quarter and the imposition of tariffs announced by the United States. In parallel with adjusting the demand figures, OPEC also scaled back its growth projections for the global economy for this year and the next—a reflection of the growing uncertainty throughout worldwide financial markets.
As the world's largest energy consumer, China continues to play a vital role in shaping global oil demand. In a recent statement, the head of Saudi Aramco stressed that current trends indicate that concerns about reaching peak oil consumption in China are unfounded.
