A recent survey from HSBC Holdings Plc $HSBC underscores a stark contrast in business sentiment between American and Chinese firms regarding the consequences of President Donald Trump’s evolving tariff policy. The report highlights pronounced concerns among US companies about the future impact of increased trade duties on earnings and supply chains, while Chinese businesses demonstrate relatively greater resilience in their outlook.
According to the findings, a significant proportion of US-based corporations now view trade policy as a direct threat to revenue stability. Over half of the American firms surveyed anticipate at least a 25% reduction in income as a result of heightened tariffs and associated disruptions to procurement and logistics. Moreover, one in four expects their revenue to be slashed by more than 50% within the next two years, illustrating the severity of the pressure on cross-border commerce and cost structures.
In contrast, Chinese businesses are showing more measured optimism regarding the same policy shifts. While roughly a quarter foresee a revenue drop of 25% or more, most expect the impact to remain in the 10–25% range. This moderate outlook suggests a degree of adaptability within Chinese corporate strategies or differing levels of exposure in global value chains.
Key Factors Shaping Revenue Outlooks
Tariff Sensitivity in Supply Chains: US companies report higher dependency on international suppliers, making them vulnerable to added expenses and volatility.
Strategic Adaptation in China: Chinese enterprises may benefit from diversified sourcing strategies or domestic market orientation, mitigating the direct consequences of tariffs.
Revenue Concentration Risk: The potential for revenue reductions above 50% signals heavy reliance on global trade flows among certain sectors in the US.
Long-term Forecasting Challenges: Tariff unpredictability increases the complexity of corporate planning, capital allocation, and forecasting.
Market Sentiment and Capital Markets: Deteriorating revenue projections can influence investor sentiment, US stock indices (e.g., SPX, DJI), and credit markets.
The widening gap in expectations between US and Chinese firms highlights the divergent effects of protectionist measures. Policy shifts by the United States, including steep tariff escalations, risk undermining competitiveness in exposed industries while accelerating strategic realignment in global supply structures.
The HSBC survey provides critical insights into how persistent tariff tensions shape multinational business strategy and reshape profit expectations. As the landscape of global trade continues to adjust, differentiated outcomes for corporations on either side of the Pacific become increasingly apparent.
It's striking how US firms brace for impact while Chinese companies remain notably optimistic.
This survey shows that while US companies brace for the tariff storm, Chinese counterparts maintain a surprisingly resilient stance.