UBS Raises S&P 500 Year-End Target to 6000 Amid Upgraded EPS Forecasts Through 2026

In a significant vote of confidence for U.S. equity markets, UBS Global Wealth Management $UBS has raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 Index $^SPX from 5800 to 6000, citing stronger-than-expected corporate earnings growth. The new outlook comes alongside an upgraded earnings-per-share (EPS) projection for 2025 and a fresh long-term target for mid-2026.

The upward revision reflects increasing macroeconomic resilience, improving corporate fundamentals, and a technology-driven earnings cycle that continues to surprise to the upside. UBS’s revised S&P 500 target for June 2026 now stands at 6400, an increase from earlier estimates.

Behind the Numbers: Drivers of the Upward Revision

UBS analysts emphasized that their higher S&P 500 targets are underpinned by robust earnings momentum, particularly in sectors leading the digital transformation and AI investment wave.

Core updates from the UBS forecast include:

1. New Year-End Target – The S&P 500 is now forecasted to end 2025 at 6000, up from the prior estimate of 5800.

2. Mid-2026 Outlook – UBS projects the index will reach 6400 by June 2026.

3. EPS Forecast Upgrades – 2025 EPS projections were lifted from $250 to $260, and 2026 expectations were raised from $275 to $280.

4. Macro Tailwinds – Anticipated moderation in interest rates, stable inflation, and continued consumer demand bolster the equity backdrop.

5. Sector Leadership – Technology, communications services, and industrials are expected to contribute the most to earnings expansion.

Trends Shaping the Revised Forecast

UBS's upward adjustments are rooted in both quantitative metrics and qualitative shifts in market sentiment. The firm's analysts point to resilient profit margins, accelerated capital expenditures, and enhanced productivity, especially in tech-heavy segments of the index.

• Earnings Resilience: Improved margins and cost control are supporting upward earnings revisions across sectors.

• AI and Automation Impact: Structural productivity gains from digital infrastructure and AI investments are beginning to reflect in bottom lines.

• Policy Environment: Easing monetary policy expectations are reinforcing equity multiples, particularly in growth-oriented industries.

• Capital Market Conditions: Healthy corporate balance sheets and declining refinancing risks support the case for re-rating valuation multiples.

• Global Fund Flows: Increased institutional exposure to U.S. equities provides technical support to higher index targets.

Forces Guiding Market Sentiment

• Upgraded EPS forecast: $260 in 2025 and $280 in 2026

• S&P 500 year-end 2025 target raised to 6000

• June 2026 index target set at 6400

• U.S. equity markets driven by tech earnings strength

• UBS highlights macro stability and earnings visibility

Factors to Keep on the Radar

1. Monetary policy signals from the Federal Reserve in Q3–Q4 2025

2. Sector-specific earnings guidance during the next two reporting cycles

3. Shifts in Treasury yields affecting equity risk premiums

4. Revisions to U.S. GDP and productivity data

5. Political developments ahead of the 2026 mid-year forecast horizon

Conclusion

UBS’s bullish revision of its S&P 500 forecast signals a broader confidence in the trajectory of U.S. equities, particularly amid strong earnings momentum and favorable macroeconomic indicators. As technology and productivity continue to fuel performance across sectors, the path to 6000—and potentially 6400 by mid-2026—appears increasingly grounded in data-driven optimism.