In recent years, the ambitious project of dismantling economic barriers between nations has faced significant challenges. The global trade war initiated by the United States is impacting world markets and raising concerns among leading economists. One of these voices is Ray Dalio, billionaire and founder of the hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, who shared his insights on the current economic realities.

A Turning Point for the Economy Decision-Making Phase

In an interview on NBC's "Meet the Press," an important question was raised: can the US economy slide into recession due to the current trade tensions? Dalio, known for his insightful forecasts, mentioned that the economy is currently at a decision-making phase that might lead the world's largest economy into recession. This phase, marked by a notable reduction in production volumes, is underscored by uncertainty about the future economic trajectory.

The New Tariff Policy What Has Changed

Decisions being made by the US administration are already leading to significant changes in trade policy. The tariff plan affecting dozens of countries has the potential to alter trade dynamics. Here are the key points:

1. Tariffs on imports: Tariffs have been imposed on goods from many countries, disrupting established international trade flows.

2. Changing timelines: Scheduled dates for tariff implementation have been suddenly altered, causing market instability.

3. Ninety-day deferrals: A 90-day deferral has been granted to some countries, with the exception of China, providing a brief respite.

4. Uneven impact: Different industries are affected variably, depending on their specific reliance on international trade.

Potential Consequences of the Trade War

The ongoing trade war could have multifaceted and significant implications for the global economy:

- Increased uncertainty: Continuous shifts in trade policy create instability, making long-term planning more challenging.

- Recession threats: Ray Dalio believes that the ongoing trade tensions bring the US closer to a recession, which could in turn affect global financial markets.

- Deteriorating international relations: Heightened tariff barriers contribute to worsening trade relations and increase tensions between nations.

Future Development Prospects

The current situation requires swift and effective measures not only at a national but also at an international level. As Dalio emphasized, the economy is at a critical juncture, and resolving issues arising from the trade war could set a new direction for future market development.

In conclusion, the prospect of a US recession amid the trade war presents a serious challenge and requires careful consideration from policymakers and economists worldwide.