On Thursday, oil prices remained steady following a recent increase that reached their highest levels since February. The market is currently influenced by several factors affecting price movements: new U.S. tariffs, reduced oil reserves in the U.S., and uncertainty surrounding global supply.
As of 09:12 GMT:
- Brent crude futures dipped 0.3%, losing 23 cents to $73.56 per barrel.
- West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures, the U.S. benchmark, also fell by 0.3%, to $69.44 per barrel, which is a decrease of 21 cents.
This decline followed a one-day increase observed on Wednesday when prices rose approximately 1% to hit a monthly peak.
This week, U.S. sanctions have taken center stage in the market's attention. President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff for buyers of Venezuelan oil. This move has increased pressure on Caracas and restricted the country's access to the international market, heightening concerns about the stability of supplies from Venezuela.
Industry sources noted that Indian company Reliance Industries, which operates the world’s largest oil refining complex, is now compelled to halt imports of Venezuelan oil. This decision introduces additional risks for countries reliant on exports from this region.
Amid geopolitical instability, U.S. oil price support is being reinforced by data showing declining oil and fuel reserves. According to recent American analysts' reports, the significant decrease in commercial inventories indicates higher domestic demand for crude.
Tamas Varga, an analyst with PVM, confirmed that on Wednesday, the oil market "ignored stock market declines" due to inventory cutbacks and the impact of new tariffs.
Decisions on imposing tariffs on Venezuela and potential retaliation from its partners could create supply imbalances globally. Against this backdrop, many investors express concerns about a potential decrease in the availability of certain oil grades.
Concurrently, this dynamic prompts a restructuring of established oil supply chains. Some countries, including India, are forced to seek alternative sources for imports, increasing price volatility.
Outside the OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies) agreement, which regulates output among major producers, there is a trend of increasing production, especially in the United States. The robust development of shale companies remains a notable factor of pricing pressure, restraining long-term growth.
1. Supply Reduction. U.S. sanctions directly limit the amount of Venezuelan oil available on the market.
2. Impact on Refining. The restrictive regime could affect refineries in countries that have traditionally purchased Venezuelan oil.
3. Strengthening Demand for Other Oil Grades. Market participants are shifting focus to more stable oil sources, boosting prices for benchmark grades such as Brent and WTI.
With the influx of news from the markets, oil dynamics remain dependent on geopolitical events, macroeconomic conditions, and the domestic situation in economies worldwide.
Key Trends:
- Moderate demand strengthening amid the global economic recovery.
- Price stabilization in the range of $70 to $75 per barrel for Brent.
- Influence of exogenous factors (sanctions, tariffs, and weather conditions).
In the near term, oil prices will likely remain volatile due to geopolitical events and market trends. The U.S. decision to impose tariffs on Venezuelan oil continues to intensify supply tension, supporting current high prices.
The decrease in U.S. fuel stocks affirms sustained demand, further strengthening oil positions in the market. However, with increasing production outside OPEC+, there are limitations on long-term price increases, indicating a need for closely monitoring all influencing factors.
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