about 19 hours ago

Circle’s IPO and the Crypto Market: Arthur Hayes Compares the Boom to the 2017 ICO Frenzy

The crypto market is entering a new phase of speculative excitement following Circle's IPO $CRCL (CRCL) debut on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Among the voices drawing historical parallels is Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, who described the moment with a clever turn of phrase: “We’ve gone full Circle — what a glorious day,” referring both to the company's name and the cyclical nature of crypto hype.

According to Hayes, the market is replaying the speculative dynamics of the 2017 Initial Coin Offering (ICO) boom — this time under the guise of crypto IPOs expected to peak between 2025 and 2027. He anticipates that the cycle will culminate in a blockbuster IPO akin to EOS’s notorious token sale — one that draws massive capital, only to see its stock crash post-listing.

New Capital, Familiar Risks

Circle, the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, is among the first major crypto-native firms to go public through a traditional IPO, signaling a move toward greater institutional acceptance. Its debut on the NYSE saw shares jump 168% on the first day of trading, with Bloomberg reporting that demand outstripped supply by 25 times.

While the public listing offers regulatory legitimacy and opens the door to mainstream investors, Hayes warns that the underlying mechanisms echo the ICO era: elevated valuations, minimal fundamental backing for some companies, and a frenzy fueled more by speculation than substance.

The 2017 ICO boom was marked by startups raising billions in unregulated token sales, often with no working product or business model. EOS, now rebranded as Vaulta, famously raised $4 billion, only for its token to plunge in value post-launch, while the platform failed to deliver on its ambitious promises.

Today’s IPOs may be more regulated and transparent, but according to Hayes, the emotional and behavioral dynamics of the market remain unchanged.

Key Facts:

Circle operates the USDC stablecoin on Ethereum.
CRCL shares surged 168% on their first day of NYSE trading.
IPO demand exceeded supply by 25x, according to Bloomberg.
EOS conducted the largest ICO in history, raising $4 billion.
Arthur Hayes calls the IPO wave a “new cycle of crypto speculation.”

Continued Analysis: Market Response and Expert Insight

Circle’s successful debut has reinvigorated investor interest in potential future listings. Analysts at Galaxy Digital believe other crypto infrastructure firms — such as Anchorage Digital, Ledger, and Worldcoin — may be preparing for public offerings.

This resurgence is seen as a sign of renewed market confidence following the prolonged “crypto winter.” However, experts caution that speculative bubbles can reform quickly, particularly if upcoming IPOs fail to demonstrate sustainable business models or product-market fit.

Hayes predicts the current cycle may conclude with an overhyped IPO that mimics EOS’s trajectory — a record-breaking capital raise followed by sharp devaluation and unmet expectations.

Key Developments:

Crypto IPOs are reintroducing speculative energy to regulated capital markets.
Circle’s IPO success may trigger a wave of public listings across the industry.
The psychological dynamics resemble those of the 2017 ICO frenzy.
Investors should weigh hype against fundamentals.
The cycle may climax with a high-profile IPO that collapses under its own weight.

Institutionalization or Deja vu?

Circle’s IPO marks a significant milestone in the institutional acceptance of crypto-native firms. It highlights the growing intersection between blockchain innovation and traditional finance. Yet Arthur Hayes’s warning serves as a timely reminder: new formats don’t eliminate old risks.

While crypto IPOs offer a more compliant and transparent fundraising route compared to ICOs, the speculative energy — and its potential fallout — remains familiar. If upcoming public offerings focus more on narrative than execution, the market may find itself reliving another “full Circle” moment.