Lead and zinc, closely related metals in terms of geology and extraction, have recently shown stark contrasts in their market performance. This disparity stems from varying dynamics in supply, demand, and global inventory levels. Below, we analyze the key trends shaping each market and their interrelation, while also highlighting potential future trajectories.
Zinc Prices Surge Amidst Supply Shortages
In October 2023, zinc prices on the London Metal Exchange skyrocketed to a 20-month high, reaching $3,284 per tonne for three-month contracts. The market's bullish momentum has been fueled by a severe shortage of raw materials, spurring price premiums in key regional markets.
The CEO of Petrobras $PETR4.SA, a state-owned Brazilian oil company, announced plans to adjust diesel fuel prices following discussions with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The revision aligns with the company’s pricing strategies and is expected to be rolled out in the coming weeks.
Why the Adjustment is Necessary
Petrobras’ pricing adjustments are heavily influenced by global oil price trends and internal economic factors. The main reasons for the upcoming changes include:
- Volatility in the international crude oil market, significantly impacting production costs in Brazil.
One of the largest players in the cryptocurrency market, KuCoin, has found itself at the center of a significant legal scandal. On Monday, the exchange admitted its guilt in conducting money transmission business without the necessary licenses and agreed to significant fines and restrictive measures. This development marks a pivotal moment in the regulation of cryptocurrency exchanges.
Key Details of the Case
KuCoin, operating under the brand of Peken Global Ltd, faced severe accusations from the US Department of Justice (DOJ). The core of the case is that the exchange violated licensing requirements necessary for money transmission within the United States. As part of the agreement with the judicial system, the company:
- Admitted its criminal liability.
Gold prices remained stable as investors awaited the outcome of the U.S. Federal Reserve's (Fed) meeting. The global financial market anticipates any signals on how President Donald Trump's policies have influenced the central bank's decisions on monetary policy.
Recent Trends in the Gold Market
By 02:30 GMT on Tuesday, spot gold prices were largely unchanged, staying at $2,738.90 per ounce. On Monday, gold experienced a sharp decline of over 1%, triggered by a sell-off across the broader market following the release of an affordable artificial intelligence (AI) model developed in China.
American steel producer Nucor Corp $NUE has published its financial results for the fourth quarter, which fell short of expectations. The decline in revenue and profit is attributed to falling steel prices and related products, reflecting the broader challenges faced by the global steel market. The market saturation, due to both high domestic production and increased imports, continues to pose difficulties for industry players.
Key Results of the Quarter
According to the quarterly report, Nucor Corp's revenue and profit saw a significant decline in the fourth quarter of 2024. The main factors behind this include:
Barrick Gold Corporation $ABX.TO, one of the world's largest gold producers, has found itself entangled in a complex legal dispute with the Malian government. At the heart of the conflict are allegations of tax underpayment, asset confiscation, and demands for revised mining regulations in the country. Both parties have agreed to commence a new round of negotiations, which may prove to be a pivotal step toward resolving this significant issue.
The Core of the Conflict
The disputes between the Malian government and Barrick Gold began with accusations of tax underpayments amounting to $199 million. In response, the authorities seized approximately 3 tons of gold from the company, valued at $250 million. This decision forced Barrick to temporarily halt mining operations at one of its key sites in the region—Loulo-Gounkoto.
$NSANY is taking significant steps to improve its financial health. In today's economic climate, the automaker is undertaking a restructuring process that avoids plant closures. This initiative aims to optimize resources and maintain competitiveness in anticipation of its upcoming capital alliance with Honda Motor Co.
Reduction and Consolidation
According to sources familiar with the situation, the company's primary focus is on reorganizing its existing production lines both in Japan and internationally. This strategy is intended to significantly reduce operating costs, a crucial move under current conditions. Consolidating production facilities will be a top priority for Nissan, and workforce shifts may also be adjusted for additional cost savings.
Prior Success
European stocks have faced challenges after reaching historic peaks. The upcoming week will be crucial for the markets as major corporate earnings reports will be released. Among the key players is $ASML, whose results could spark a rally in the stock market.
ASML Holding NV, one of the largest manufacturers of semiconductor equipment, is a key player in the technology market. The future outlook for ASML will attract significant attention, especially after the Chinese startup DeepSeek introduced a cost-effective AI model that created a stir in the tech sector.
ASML's influence on the semiconductor industry is substantial, and any changes in its reporting could significantly alter market sentiment.
Other Significant Players
Over the past 12 months, the financial landscape has been significantly influenced by three major factors. Technological optimism centered around artificial intelligence, hopes for leveling up, and increased yields on government bonds have all contributed to notable shifts on the investment horizon.
A major boost has been provided by innovations in technology and artificial intelligence. Enthusiasm around the potential productivity gains promised by new technologies has led to substantial stock market growth. Notably, a few tech giants have been at the forefront of this surge in the $^SPX, as it climbed from one record level to another.
Expectations of Leveling Up
The second key factor is the hope for leveling up, creating waves of anticipation among market participants believing better times lie ahead. While macroeconomic indicators remain cautiously optimistic, this sentiment is already impacting personal and institutional investment strategies. Growth expectations are bolstered by factors such as steady consumer activity and improved employment figures.
$RYAAY, one of Europe's largest airlines, has once again cut its passenger growth forecast. The company is facing challenges due to delays in aircraft deliveries from $BA, a consequence of last year's prolonged workers' strike.
Because of recent delays in aircraft deliveries, Ryanair anticipates a significant impact on current market expectations. Boeing, which suffered losses due to the strike, is struggling to restore regular delivery schedules to its clients, affecting the operations of many airlines, including Ryanair.
History of Passenger Growth Forecast
Initial Forecast: Ryanair planned to increase passenger volumes with the help of a new fleet;
First Adjustment: Following initial delays, the forecast was revised earlier this year;
Additional Adjustment: Three months later, Ryanair again lowers its targets due to ongoing delivery issues with Boeing.
In recent years, Europe has aimed to bolster its position in the field of artificial intelligence (AI), competing with global leaders such as OpenAI and $GOOGL. A year ago, several promising startups in Germany and the UK showed significant potential. However, their activities have since diminished, leaving the new favorite on the European AI scene, French startup Mistral, standing alone and representing strategically essential solutions.
Current State of AI Startups in Europe
Several AI startups in Germany and the UK, once considered competitive, have ceased production of large models. This vacuum has been filled by Mistral, which has now assumed a new role as the leader in the AI sector. For Mistral, this means not only advancing their developments but also enhancing communication with investors and policymakers to prove that Europe can maintain its position in critical technologies.
The Importance of Mistral for the European AI Market
$TSLA shares have consistently captured investor attention, reflecting dramatic shifts amid political changes. Following the elections, the company's stock experienced an impressive 65% surge. However, recent developments raise questions about the potential for this trend to resume.
Post-Election Dynamics of Tesla's Stock
In the months following the elections, Tesla's market activity unfolded rapidly, marked by several key phases that have significantly shaped the current landscape:
Rise Amid Post-Election Expectations: Tesla's shares began to climb soon after the elections, driven by the anticipation of continued government support for electric vehicles and the transition to clean energy solutions.
Pause in the Rally: A correction followed the sharp rise as investors grew cautious, questioning the sustainability of strong consumer demand and government subsidy policies for electric vehicles.
Decline Amid Political Changes: The introduction of Donald Trump as President of the United States added a layer of uncertainty, leading to a 4% drop in the first week, ultimately culminating in a monthly decline of 12%.
