On Monday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) updated its forecasts, sending a clear signal to economic analysts around the globe. According to the latest monthly report, the global oil demand is expected to increase by 1.30 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2025. However, this figure is 150,000 b/d lower than the previous forecast made last month. The revision comes in the wake of new data from the first quarter and the imposition of tariffs announced by the United States. In parallel with adjusting the demand figures, OPEC also scaled back its growth projections for the global economy for this year and the next—a reflection of the growing uncertainty throughout worldwide financial markets.

The global oil market is currently grappling with significant volatility, driven by the ongoing trade conflict between the United States and China. Concerns over declining economic growth and falling crude oil demand are weighing on prices, impacting major benchmarks as well as regional markets. This article offers an in-depth review of external factors affecting oil prices, analyzes the latest data, and provides an expert assessment of the evolving situation.