U.S.–China Shipping Tensions Ease as Freight Demand Rebounds Ahead of Trade Talks

After weeks of logistics disruptions caused by tit-for-tat tariffs between China and the United States, Chinese freight forwarders are cautiously re-engaging in bookings for U.S.-bound container space. The rebound follows a sharp contraction in transpacific shipping in April, as exporters and importers on both sides reeled from a new wave of trade restrictions. The resumption of bookings signals a tentative market recovery as Beijing and Washington prepare for high-level negotiations in Switzerland aimed at de-escalating trade tensions.

On April 10, U.S. President Donald Trump imposed a sweeping 145% tariff on Chinese goods, prompting a retaliatory 125% tariff from Beijing on American exports. The measures triggered an immediate slowdown in shipping volumes, disrupting established supply chains and prompting widespread route cancellations. However, recent developments suggest that logistics operators are adapting to the new normal—at least temporarily—as diplomatic efforts ramp up.

Shipping Disruption Ripple Effects Across Supply Chains

The initial market reaction to the tariff standoff was swift and severe. According to global freight forwarder Flexport, approximately 80% of goods exported from China to the U.S. were impacted by the new tariff regime. This led to a dramatic 60% drop in sailings on major routes between the two countries during April.

Shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd $HLAG.DE reported that roughly 30% of its China-to-U.S. bookings were canceled last month alone, underscoring the level of uncertainty in the international freight market. However, the reactivation of bookings indicates some stabilization, as exporters appear to be recalibrating their logistics strategies in anticipation of possible tariff revisions or interim trade frameworks.

Core Factors Behind the Freight Market Realignment

• Tariff Volatility: The dual imposition of 145% U.S. tariffs and 125% Chinese retaliatory duties has reshaped pricing models and route planning.

• Cancelled Shipments: A wave of shipment cancellations hit the transpacific corridor, causing short-term overcapacity and rate volatility.

• Supply Chain Diversification: Businesses accelerated the shift of sourcing away from China, particularly to Southeast Asia, as a risk mitigation strategy.

• Negotiation Window: The planned trade talks in Switzerland are offering cautious optimism for a partial rollback of the most aggressive tariff measures.

• Freight Resilience: The freight industry’s agility in reallocating capacity and adjusting booking patterns highlights structural improvements since earlier trade wars.

Strategic Shifts Gaining Momentum in Global Logistics

1. Dynamic Routing and Capacity Management Carriers are using real-time analytics to adapt routes, optimize fuel use, and reduce idle assets amid fluctuating demand.

2. Port and Terminal Diversification U.S. importers are increasing shipments to East Coast and Gulf ports to avoid potential West Coast congestion or political risks.

3. Bilateral Diplomatic Channels Re-Engaged The upcoming talks in Switzerland may focus on phased tariff relief, offering temporary clarity for logistics planning.

4. Pricing Strategy Adaptation Forwarders are adjusting freight rates to account for volatility in customs duties, insurance premiums, and delivery delays.

5. Sourcing Realignment Beyond China Companies are accelerating the relocation of manufacturing to Vietnam, India, and Mexico to hedge against China-centric tariff exposure.

Outlook Hinges on Diplomatic Breakthroughs and Policy Clarity

While the freight market appears to be stabilizing, the long-term trajectory remains tightly coupled with the political will of both Washington and Beijing. As container volumes begin to recover and booking activity resumes, the upcoming diplomatic summit in Switzerland could be a turning point—not just for trade policy but also for restoring trust across strained logistics networks.

Nonetheless, freight operators, exporters, and global manufacturers will likely continue to adopt a cautious stance, managing operational complexity while awaiting further clarity on tariffs and trade terms.