Soybean Exports at Risk: U.S.-China Trade Dispute Threatens Prices and Volumes

Tensions between the United States and China are again casting a shadow over global agricultural markets. According to agri-market consultancy AgResource, U.S. soybean exports could fall by as much as 20% if the two nations fail to resolve ongoing trade disputes that are limiting access to the Chinese market—historically the largest destination for American soybeans.

Speaking on the sidelines of the GrainCom conference in Geneva, AgResource President Dan Basse warned that unresolved negotiations could push U.S. soybean exports down to 1.5 billion bushels in the 2025–2026 marketing year, compared to the current estimate of 1.865 billion bushels. This downturn would have significant consequences for domestic farm revenues and commodity market dynamics.

Demand Disruption and Price Pressure Build

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) currently projects farm-gate soybean prices at $10.25 per bushel. However, AgResource forecasts that without a breakthrough in trade talks, prices could fall to $9.10 per bushel—representing a nearly 11% decline in income for American growers. This would reflect not only diminished export demand but also rising global competition and potential oversupply.

Soybeans, a cornerstone of U.S. agricultural exports, are particularly sensitive to geopolitical developments, especially given their role in livestock feed and food production. With Brazilian and Argentine producers continuing to expand market share, the U.S. risks further marginalization in global grain flows if diplomatic efforts stall.

Critical Market Consequences Taking Shape

• Export Volume Reduction: A 365-million-bushel decline would significantly reduce foreign exchange inflows and burden domestic storage.

• Price Compression: Lower demand translates directly to suppressed prices at the farm level.

• Competitor Advantage: South American suppliers stand to gain from any U.S.-China trade impasse.

• Policy Sensitivity: Trade outcomes now directly shape USDA forecasts and price discovery mechanisms.

Structural Vulnerabilities and Global Supply Impacts

This potential setback comes at a time when global supply chains are already under pressure due to climate variability, logistical disruptions, and shifting consumption patterns. The U.S. soybean market is deeply integrated with global food and biofuel systems, and prolonged trade limitations could lead to structural losses in market share, some of which may be irreversible even if a deal is reached later.

A slowdown in soybean exports not only hurts American farmers but also reverberates across futures markets, shipping logistics, and input supply chains, from fertilizer demand to processing capacity. Moreover, it could force the USDA to revise both export and acreage projections in upcoming reports, impacting planting decisions nationwide.

Key Points Defining the Current Landscape

1. Export Forecast Slashed: Estimates fall from 1.865 to 1.5 billion bushels if no trade deal is reached.

2. Farm Prices Under Pressure: Projected average price may drop from $10.25 to $9.10 per bushel.

3. China Remains Key Buyer: A lack of access to the Chinese market would deepen the U.S. trade imbalance.

4. South America’s Strategic Positioning: Brazil and Argentina could absorb U.S. market share losses.

5. Grain Markets Remain Volatile: Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures may respond sharply to trade signals.

Strategic Outlook Hinges on Diplomatic Progress

The fate of U.S. soybean exports now hinges on whether trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing can yield tangible outcomes. Without resolution, American producers face a dual threat: weaker global demand and falling domestic price supports. While short-term losses are already being priced in by market observers, the long-term consequences could be more structural in nature, involving the reallocation of global trade flows away from U.S. origins.

As the 2025–2026 agricultural season approaches, the stakes continue to rise not only for U.S. soybean producers, but also for a wide range of stakeholders connected to the global food and commodities ecosystem.